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Economic Trends and Outlook

Based on the Comptroller’s new 13-region economic model of the Texas, employment in the West Texas region (covering a 30-county area centered around the Midland–Odessa and San Angelo metropolitan areas) is projected to grow at a 1.7 percent annual rate, up from the 1.1 percent rate seen from 1995 to 2000 but somewhat slower than the 1.9 percent growth rate expected for the state as a whole. By 2005, employment in the West Texas region should reach more than 325,000.

Based on historical data since 1970, the Comptroller projects improving economic growth for the region. Although the West Texas region has generally underperformed Texas as a whole, the next five years should see growth in line with that seen in the early 1990s and much better than figures posted in the 1980s. The primary challenge for this region is continuing to provide the educational skills needed to train the work force to meet the changing needs of businesses in an Internet economy.

This report details the recent economic changes in the West Texas region, presents “baseline” economic forecasts for key indicators through 2005, discusses the structural changes that have led and will lead to economic growth, presents a forecast for occupational changes likely to be seen in the region over the next five years and identifies possible target industries for future development. Economic development leaders within the region may wish to use this report to guide development of the region’s economy in upcoming years.

The Last 30 Years

Economically, the West Texas region saw significant growth during the last 30 years of the 20th century. In real terms (1992 dollars), gross regional product in this region—the sum of all value added within the region—increased more than 60 percent from $9.3 billion in 1970 to $14.9 billion in 2000 (Graph 1). This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent.

graph1

During this time, the population of the West Texas region increased only 26 percent, rising from 415,900 to 524,100. As a result of good growth in the value of production in the region and somewhat slower population growth, per capita real incomes have risen dramatically over the last 30 years. For example, in real terms (1992 dollars) per capita disposable personal income—income not used to pay federal taxes—rose nearly 70 percent from $12,100 in 1970 to $20,500 in 2000. This means that the average person or household in the region has more than two-thirds more real purchasing power in 2000 than in 1970.

In terms of jobs, growth in this region was good during much of the 1970s and early 1980s. From about 1982 to 1992, the region was buffeted with many of the same economic storms that hit much of Texas—oil boom and bust, real estate ups and downs and a national recession in the early 1990s. Starting in 1993, employment growth in the region resumed an upward path and since that time has grown at a 1.4 percent annual rate, just slightly below the 30-year annual growth rate of 1.5 percent.

These growth rates determine if the region is becoming a larger part of the Texas economy or not. In terms of population, employment and regional product, the West Texas region declined compared with the rest of Texas since 1970. In 1970, the region accounted for 3.7 percent of the state’s population and employment, and 4.8 percent of the gross regional product (Graph 2). By the end of the century, the region accounted for 2.6 percent of the state’s population, 2.5 percent of the value of production in the state and 2.4 percent of the state’s employment base.

graph2

Shifting Growth Patterns

Even within slowly growing economies, important structural shifts occur over time. These shifts often result from regional and even nationwide changes in production, consumption and technology. Understanding these shifts can help identify prospects for future growth within the region.

Table 2 presents the historical employment figures for the West Texas region for 18 broad industries in 1980, 1990 and 2000.[1] These industries correspond to a functional classification of activities within the region rather than through Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes usually used to examine the economic structure of a region. The sectors in this table are ranked according to the average annual growth rate in employment.

TABLE 2
West Texas Region Employment and Growth
1980-2000

  Employment in Region Average
Annual
Growth Rate
  1980 1990 2000
Health Care 8,897 14,970 20,915 4.4%
Services to Business 9,547 12,742 17,079 3.0%
Local Government 22,915 28,732 35,094 2.2%
Personal Services 8,942 10,435 13,253 2.0%
Tourism and Entertainment 16,759 19,838 24,466 1.9%
State Government 4,896 5,576 7,124 1.9%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 14,672 15,074 19,261 1.4%
Other Services 10,830 12,932 13,696 1.2%
Federal Government 2,911 3,859 3,541 1.0%
Wholesale and Retail Trade 42,663 41,763 45,190 0.3%
Agriculture, Agri. Related, Agri. Processing 20,108 18,687 21,100 0.2%
Construction, Building Materials 18,451 12,121 17,765 (0.2)%
High Tech, Communications, Aviation and Electronics 9,322 8,619 8,497 (0.5)%
Other Durable Goods Manufacturing 5,956 3,932 5,391 (0.5)%
Other Transportation and Public Utilities 9,380 7,414 7,209 (1.3)%
Other Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing 5,805 4,808 4,352 (1.4)%
Other 3,141 2,195 2,007 (2.2)%
Oil and Gas Production, Refining and Petrochemicals 46,899 39,455 29,154 (2.3)%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

The fastest growing sector in the West Texas region during the last 20 years was health care. Here, national trends are dominating regional growth. As incomes grow and populations age, more and more is spent on health care. The increasing technological sophistication of health care, while improving effectiveness, as seen through an ever-expanding average life-span, also drives up costs. Unfortunately, because health care is a service that most often must be administered by trained professionals on a one-on-one basis, the ability of technological innovations to lower personnel requirements—a byproduct of technology seen in many other industries—has not been as broadly felt as in health care. As a result, the demand for health care services employment has risen rapidly over the past 20 years

The second fastest-growing sector in the West Texas region is business services. This is largely the result of a long-term reorganization of many existing businesses that have begun relying on outsourcing. The post-World War II model of industrial organization is breaking down, spinning more and more of the duties that used to be done within a company to outside vendors. Responsibilities like janitorial services have become more specialized, making it more cost-effective to outsource them. In the case of repairing copiers, or training personnel to use new computer programs, this outsourcing was driven by increasing technological sophistication. Even the evolution of many businesses towards increased use of contract employees drove the growth of business services employment, since some of these contract workers were provided through temporary help agencies.

Whatever its particular source, this has been a strong trend in the reorganization of the business community. To a large extent this is merely a reshuffling of employment opportunities from other sectors, manufacturing in particular, to business services. As such, this shift represents a positive change in the productivity and competitiveness of these businesses rather than degradation of manufacturing capacity.

Growth in local government employment, the third fastest growing sector, stems from increases in the size of the population served, and some shift in the number of workers required to provide these services. In particular, the number of local government employees is sensitive to changes in educational policy, such as decreases in school class sizes, or in law enforcement needs. Moreover, as in many services, productivity improvements are slow in local government, increased demand from a larger population or changes in policies are not offset to a large degree by productivity gains as they tend to be in other sectors such as manufacturing.

The fourth- and fifth-fastest growing sectors both reflect the same influence—increasing wealth. With rising incomes consumers then to spend more on personal services and have more leisure time—or at least more money to spend on leisure and entertainment. Rising real incomes are behind many of the gains in entertainment and tourism and personal services.

State government is the only remaining sector displaying an average annual employment growth rate above the long-term average for the West Texas region, although only marginally so. This is attributable mostly to growth in both higher education and prison populations.

At the other end of the growth spectrum are the areas in which the region has lost ground. In some cases, such as oil and gas, this is part of a much wider trend brought on by the distribution of natural resources and the consolidation of the industry. But the appearance of some industries at the bottom of this list, such as high technology, communication, aviation and electronics, may seem puzzling in light of the focus on the growth of these technologically-based industries. In part, these industries have been recovering in the region after absorbing some major job losses in the communications sector in the early 1990s. Some parts of this sector, such as computer programming, have been strong employment growth sectors throughout the last 20 years of the 20th century and will likely continue to be strong sources of growth.

Identifying Regional Comparative Advantage

One key to understanding how a region’s economy grows and evolves is by appreciating what unique advantages the region provides to certain industries, and how those industries have fared over time.

One device for both identifying and summarizing the industries in which a region specializes is through a “location quotient.” This descriptive statistic identifies which industries are unique to a region by comparing the percentage of employment in each industry in the region to the percentage of employment that the same industry accounts for in the nation. If an industry accounts for more of the region’s total employment than it does of the nation’s, the region is seen as specializing in that industry. Moreover, because that industry has flourished in the region, the region is said to have demonstrated a comparative advantage for that industry. In practice, because of measurement issues, the percentage of an industry in the region’s employment base must usually greatly exceed the national percentage for the industry to be truly considered unique to the region.

The industries with location quotients greater than 1.5 in 2000 in the West Texas region are identified in Table 3 along with those industries’ national employment growth rates from 1990 to 2000. This list contains industries that are typically found in any list of industries unique to Texas, as well as many industries that are unique to the West Texas region.

There is an obvious Texas connection with the oil and gas industry. The top five industries listed in Table 3 are connected with oil and gas either through drilling, refining, other processing, or transporting these natural resources. In addition, several others on the table relate to the oil and gas industry including construction and related machinery, which includes drilling machinery, and the miscellaneous equipment rental industry, which deals extensively with drilling companies. Unfortunately, of these seven industries, only the equipment rental industry has shown any nationwide employment growth in the past decade.

TABLE 3
Location Quotients for Key Industries
in the West Texas Region

  Location
Quotient		 National Employment
Average Annual
Growth Rate
1990-2000
Ordnance and Ammunition 32.1 (5.7)%
Oil and Gas Field Services 12.1 (0.8)%
Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas and Gas Liquids 8.8 (4.9)%
Meat Products 7.6 1.8%
Petroleum Refining 5.8 (3.0)%
Grain Mill Products and Fats and Oils 5.3 (0.2)%
Farm 3.5 (0.1)%
Pipelines, except Natural Gas 2.7 (2.8)%
Gas Utilities 2.6 (2.2)%
Agricultural Services 2.4 4.4%
Miscellaneous Chemical Products 2.0 (0.6)%
Construction and Related Machinery 1.9 0.8%
Personal Services, NEC 1.8 4.4%
Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing 1.8 2.4%
Insurance Agents, Brokers, and Services 1.6 1.1%
Miscellaneous Repair Services 1.5 1.7%
Farm and Garden Machinery and Equipment 1.5 (0.0)%
Health Services, NEC 1.5 5.8%
Funeral Service and Crematories 1.5 2.3%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Agriculture and agricultural services also show up as industries displaying some advantages in the West Texas region based on the location quotient. These industries in Table 3 are directly tied to agricultural production in the region, primarily to the cattle industry, but also cotton and sheep. Unfortunately, no agricultural processing activities appear on this list, underscoring some potential for development in the future using locally available agricultural products.

Two other industries appear on Table 3 that indicate the region’s strength in activities related to white-collar employment and health care. The region is home to a significant concentration of activities related to medical equipment manufacturing and to health care—two industries displaying national employment growth in the past decade.

Many of the industries in the West Texas region that have prospered due to the region’s unique attributes are unlikely to be able to carry the region further into the new millennium. In particular, both the oil and gas industry and some components of the cattle industry have not been strong job generators over the past decade.

But while the location quotient is a useful measure for summarizing which industries the region tends to have specialized in the past, it is a static measure. A more dynamic approach looks at the growth of industries in the region and compares that to the growth that might have been expected had they followed the same growth pattern of these industries in other parts of the nation. This dynamic approach to looking at the region’s economic structure is known as shift-share analysis.

Like the location quotient, the approach in shift-share analysis is to develop a standard for assessing if the currently observed level of industry concentration in a region is higher than expected, about what should be expected or less than expected. If observed local employment is greater than might otherwise be expected, then the region has demonstrated some strength in attracting the growth of that industry.

One result of shift-share analysis is the “regional industry growth differential.” This measure is the ratio of what employment in an industry in the region actually was in the most recent period divided by what industry employment would have been if it had historically grown at the same rate as the industry did across the nation. This measure of dynamic growth potential represents the number of times larger (or smaller) actual employment is in the most recent time period compared to what it would have been if the industry had grown at the same rate as the industry did across the nation. In practice, industries identified as unique in the region through the location quotient measure tend to be those that have demonstrated a sustained period of economic strength in the region, whereas those identified by the growth differential measure can be those starting to show some emerging strength.

Table 4 presents the industries in the West Texas region that have a regional industry growth differential greater than 1.25 and employed at least 200 workers in 2000. Also shown for each industry is the average annual rate of employment growth in the industry from 1980 to 2000 in the West Texas region. The 1.25 cut-off point indicates that industry employment in 2000 in the region was 25 percent larger than would have been expected based on the industry’s employment in 1980 and the growth of the region and industry nationwide from 1980 to 2000. In the same sense as with the static location quotient, these industries have demonstrated a significant level of concentration over time in the West Texas region and by this growth show that this region has some comparative advantage in their development. There is some overlap between this list and Table 3, but it is far from complete.

TABLE 4
Industries with a High Regional Industry Growth Differential
in the West Texas Region Between 1980 and 2000

Rank Industry Regional
Industry Growth
Differential		 Average Annual
Employment Growth
1980 -2000
1 Miscellaneous Transportation Equipment 7.53 10.9%
2 Manufactured Products 3.99 5.8%
3 Educational Services 2.86 7.6%
4 Apparel 2.13 (1.7)%
5 Metal Coating, Engraving, and Allied Services 1.90 3.9%
6 Footwear, Except Rubber and Plastic 1.90 (5.8)%
7 Fabricated Structural Metal Products 1.89 1.7%
8 Federal Civilian 1.70 1.0%
9 Individual and Miscellaneous Social Services 1.53 5.2%
10 Residential Care 1.53 7.8%
11 Membership Organizations 1.53 3.1%
12 Child Day Care Services 1.53 5.1%
13 Nursing and Personal Care Facilities 1.52 3.9%
14 Offices of Health Practitioners 1.52 4.9%
15 Hospitals 1.52 2.9%
16 Health Services 1.52 8.3%
17 Local Government 1.49 2.2%
18 Farm Workers 1.49 (0.4)%
19 State Government 1.44 1.9%
20 Miscellaneous Petroleum and Coal Products 1.29 (0.2)%
21 Pipelines, Except Natural Gas 1.28 (1.8)%
22 Real Estate 1.28 2.1%
23 Oil and Gas Field Services 1.28 (2.2)%
24 Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas and Gas Liquids 1.28 (2.4)%
25 Nonmetallic Minerals, Except Fuels 1.27 (0.8)%
26 Stone, Clay, and Misc. Mineral Products 1.26 (1.2)%
27 Miscellaneous Chemical Products 1.25 (0.2)%
28 Industrial Chemicals 1.25 (1.7)%
29 Plastics Materials and Synthetics 1.25 (1.6)%
30 Concrete, Gypsum, and Plaster Products 1.25 0.4%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Table 4 is still sprinkled with different segments of the oil and gas industry, indicating that the region remains an important part of this industry even in a dynamic sense. This proves that even a more dynamic measure of regional comparative advantage will include industries that are in decline. In the case of petroleum refining and oil drilling activities, the nationwide employment trend from 1980 to 2000 declined significantly. But because these three industries basically held their own during this time or declined only slightly relative to the nation, the West Texas region demonstrated some advantage to these industries during the last two decades.

This same argument applies to farm employment, but is probably best appreciated by noting that both the apparel and footwear industries, which rank high on this list, witnessed rapid employment declines nationally during the last 20 years but in the West Texas region declined at a much less rapid rate. Accordingly, relative to the rest of the nation, West Texas displayed some strength in this industry.

There do seem to be some significant trends toward diversification of the industrial base of the West Texas region including activities that require more skilled workers. In particular, the relative strength of a variety of manufacturing activities appears to signify some shift away from traditional oil and gas and agriculturally-related industries. But progress in this diversification has been slow.

Table 4 reconfirms some of the comparative advantages identified in the location quotient and helps identify others. The important point is that measures such as the location quotient or the industry growth differential identify industries for which the West Texas region has demonstrated a comparative advantage. These industries define the competitive character of the region, and these measures will be used in the last section of this report to help identify industries with strong potential to help the region grow in the future.

Growth Forecasts Through 2005

Forecasted changes in the statewide economy and the strong theoretical framework of the 13-region Texas model allows the estimation of baseline forecasts of growth for each region in Texas. Overall, employment in the West Texas region is expected to grow at a slightly higher rate than seen in recent years, but slightly slower than in the state as a whole. Through 2005, employment growth in the West Texas region should average 1.7 percent annually, up from a 1.1 percent posted from 1995 to 2000, but below the 1.9 percent expected for the state

The West Texas region should add nearly 27,200 new jobs from 2000 to 2005, rising from 299,300 jobs in 2000 to 326,500 in 2005. As expected across the state, this rate of growth will be slowest during the next couple of years but will accelerate into 2004 and 2005.

Through 2005, real gross regional product in the region (the total value added through production within the region) should expand at a 2.3 percent annual rate rising from $14.9 billion (1992 dollars) in 2000 to $16.7 billion in 2005. During the last five years of the 20th century, this region saw its real gross regional product expand at slightly less than a 2.1 percent annual rate.

This level of economic growth will continue with only modest population gains. The population of the region is expected to rise from 524,100 in 2000 to 526,000 in 2005.

The employment growth seen in the region will not fall evenly across all industries, but there are two ways to look at the distribution of this growth. Table 5 presents the 25 top growth industries in the region in terms of the number of new jobs they will generate between 2000 and 2005. Large industries dominate this list because even low growth rates applied to a large employment base generate large numbers of new jobs.

TABLE 5
West Texas Industries Adding the Most Jobs
Between 2000 and 2005
(Projected)

    Regional Employment 2000 Regional Employment 2005 Jobs Added Average Annual Growth Rate
1 Retail Trade, Exc. Eating and Drinking Places 33,490 37,257 3,767 2.2%
2 Local Government 35,094 37,287 2,193 1.2%
3 Oil and Gas Field Services 17,784 19,735 1,951 2.1%
4 Wholesale Trade 11,700 13,149 1,449 2.4%
5 Communications 3,788 5,224 1,436 6.6%
6 Construction 17,099 18,401 1,302 1.5%
7 Miscellaneous Business Services 5,013 6,257 1,244 4.5%
8 Eating and Drinking Places 16,685 17,893 1,208 1.4%
9 Health Services 4,127 5,326 1,199 5.2%
10 Trucking and Warehousing 4,626 5,690 1,064 4.2%
11 Personnel Supply Services 3,710 4,623 913 4.5%
12 Miscellaneous Repair Services 3,870 4,625 755 3.6%
13 Management and Public Relations 2,402 3,142 740 5.5%
14 Automobile Parking, Repair, and Services 3,329 3,940 611 3.4%
15 Offices of Health Practitioners 4,942 5,552 610 2.4%
16 Laundry, Cleaning, and Shoe Repair 2,234 2,842 608 4.9%
17 Services to Private Households 2,592 3,116 524 3.8%
18 Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing 1,915 2,364 449 4.3%
19 State Government 7,124 7,569 445 1.2%
20 Real Estate 6,645 7,061 416 1.2%
21 Fabricated Structural Metal Products 1,291 1,692 401 5.6%
22 Research and Testing Services 1,090 1,454 364 5.9%
23 Services to Buildings 1,919 2,275 356 3.5%
24 Legal Services 1,718 2,058 340 3.7%
25 Accounting, Auditing, and Other Services 1,625 1,939 314 3.6%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Many of the industries generating large numbers of new jobs in the West Texas region through 2005 will be driven by the continuation of changes in consumer expenditure patterns that have been seen over the past few years. For example, there is a continued shift toward expenditures on consumer services such as restaurants, health services and direct personal services such as laundry. Many of the industries supplying these services employ a large number of people, so that even modest growth in the demand for these industries can result in some sizeable employment growth. As a result, the single largest job gain in the region over the next five years is likely to be in retail trade employment.

In other cases, employment of school teachers, police, sanitation workers and most other local government employees will increase as population grows. As a result of even modest population and employment growth and the fact that local government is a significant employer in the region already, this will likely generate more than 2,000 new jobs over the next few years. State government could also add more jobs, although this growth rate is actually slightly less than the overall growth rate expected for state government employment in Texas.

In one case on this list, a significant portion of the forecast employment for 2005 may have already been added. Recent preliminary data indicate strong growth in communications employment in the region during 2001. As a result, much of the strong growth forecasted to occur in this sector may have already happened.

Also fueling strong growth will be services provided to business, including personnel supply services, legal services, management and public relations and miscellaneous business services. This will serve to aid businesses involved in the growth of trade with Mexico and will also help existing firms continue to outsource jobs, a strong trend seen in the business community over the past 20 years.

Unfortunately, one source of expected job growth will likely be offset by losses in another sector. Growth in oil and gas field services employment is projected to be at about the same level as employment declines in the drilling and exploration sector declines since many drilling companies are diversifying their operations into drilling services.

A ranking of industries by their likely growth rate from 2000 to 2005 is more revealing of some of the developing forces driving changes in the West Texas region, as detailed in Table 6. More technical, higher skilled workers are needed in these jobs. Topping this list of high-growth industries are computer and data processing services, followed by communications workers, research and testing services, management and public relations, educational services, legal services and other industries relying on a well-trained work force in which education is a prime component of production.

TABLE 6
25 Fastest Growing Industries in the West Texas Region
2000 to 2005
(Projected)

    2000 2005 Jobs
Gained		 Percentage
Growth
1 Computer and Data Processing Services 532 841 309 9.6%
2 Communications 3,788 5,224 1,436 6.6%
3 Research and Testing Services 1,090 1,454 364 5.9%
4 Pipelines, Except Natural Gas 506 667 161 5.7%
5 Fabricated Structural Metal Products 1,291 1,692 401 5.6%
6 Management and Public Relations 2,402 3,142 740 5.5%
7 Funeral Service and Crematories 331 430 99 5.4%
8 Health Services 4,127 5,326 1,199 5.2%
9 Beauty and Barber Shops 1,090 1,403 313 5.2%
10 Personal Services 976 1,256 280 5.2%
11 Laundry, Cleaning, and Shoe Repair 2,234 2,842 608 4.9%
12 Electrical Repair Shops 586 739 153 4.7%
13 Miscellaneous Plastics Products 644 811 167 4.7%
14 Miscellaneous Business Services 5,013 6,257 1,244 4.5%
15 Personnel Supply Services 3,710 4,623 913 4.5%
16 Residential Care 580 719 139 4.4%
17 Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing 1,915 2,364 449 4.3%
18 Metal Coating, Engraving, and Allied Services 263 324 61 4.3%
19 Trucking and Warehousing 4,626 5,690 1,064 4.2%
20 Water and Sanitation 344 420 76 4.1%
21 Private Households 2,592 3,116 524 3.8%
22 Educational Services 1,497 1,796 299 3.7%
23 Air Transportation 658 789 131 3.7%
24 Legal Services 1,718 2,058 340 3.7%
25 Miscellaneous Repair Services 3,870 4,625 755 3.6%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

The importance of education and the need for work force training is probably best seen when looking at how this projected industrial growth translates into occupational change. Table 7 presents the forecast for the 25 occupations expected to add the most positions over the next five years. As in the case of the 25 industries adding the most jobs, this list tends to be dominated by occupations that employ a lot of people at the start of the forecast period, and grow only moderately thereafter.

TABLE 7
Occupations in the West Texas Region Adding the Most Positions
2000-2005
(Projected)

    Occupations  
    2000 2005 Occupation
Job Gain		 Average
Annual
% Growth
1 Managerial and Administrative 19,824 21,763 1,939 1.9%
2 Other Clerical and Administrative Support Workers 17,714 19,322 1,608 1.8%
3 Motor Vehicle Operators 9,066 10,374 1,308 2.7%
4 Computer Scientists, Mathematicians and Operations Researchers 3,231 4,498 1,267 6.8%
5 Helpers, Laborers and Material Movers 11,355 12,515 1,160 2.0%
6 Salespeople, Retail 8,880 10,017 1,137 2.4%
7 Protective Service 9,036 10,134 1,098 2.3%
8 All Other Sales and Related Workers 6,467 7,447 980 2.9%
9 Personal Service 5,466 6,442 976 3.3%
10 Food Preparation and Service 17,743 18,697 954 1.1%
11 Cashiers 7,285 8,183 898 2.4%
12 Construction Trades 11,257 12,052 795 1.4%
13 Management Support 9,912 10,673 761 1.5%
14 Teachers, Librarians, Counselors 8,495 9,229 734 1.7%
15 Material Recorders, Schedulers, Dispatchers and Distributors 8,419 9,064 645 1.5%
16 Marketing and Sales Worker Supervisors 3,837 4,390 553 2.7%
17 Health Service 4,642 5,191 549 2.3%
18 Gardeners, Nursery, Greenhouse, Lawn Services 5,513 6,058 545 1.9%
19 Information Clerks 4,018 4,546 528 2.5%
20 Health Technicians and Technologists 5,012 5,535 523 2.0%
21 Health Assessment and Treating 5,404 5,926 522 1.9%
22 Hand Workers, Including Assemblers and Fabricators 4,188 4,708 520 2.4%
23 Other Mechanics, Installers and Repairmen 3,382 3,900 518 2.9%
24 Private Household Workers 2,289 2,771 482 3.9%
25 Social, Recreational and Religious Workers 3,986 4,463 477 2.3%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

For example, the 13-region model breaks regional employment into 94 occupations. In the case of the West Texas region, this would mean each occupational category would contain an average of about 3,100 people. With the exception of computer operators and personal service workers, the top 10 categories generating the most jobs in the region through 2005 typically have at least twice that number of jobs. Most of these large occupational categories will see moderate growth rates over the next few years, but because of their size generate a large number of new positions. But in some cases, expected rapid growth rates in smaller occupational categories will drive occupational growth, as is the case with computer scientists.

Table 8 presents the 25 occupational categories that had at least 200 workers in 200 that are expected to grow at the fastest rates though 2005. The importance of future training and education is evident in this list. It is led by the need for additional computer scientists and communication equipment personnel and includes process machine operators, lawyers, scientists, technicians, health care diagnosticians, information clerks and other professional workers. Of the top 25 occupations expected to grow the fastest during the next five years, more than half will require some advanced training beyond high school, and most of these will require either an associate’s degree, a bachelor’s degree or other advanced degrees.

TABLE 8
25 Fastest Growing Occupations in the West Texas Region
2000-2005
(Projected)

    Occupations  
    2000 2005 Occupational
Gain		 Average
Annual
Percent Gain
1 Computer Scientists, Mathematicians and Operations Researchers 3,231 4,498 1,267 6.8%
2 Communication Equipment Mechanics, Installers and Repairers 324 418 94 5.2%
3 Private Household Workers 2,289 2,771 482 3.9%
4 Personal Service 5,466 6,442 976 3.3%
5 Counter and Rental Clerks 1,270 1,485 215 3.2%
6 Metal and Plastic Process Machine Operators 364 423 59 3.0%
7 Other Mechanics, Installers and Repairmen 3,382 3,900 518 2.9%
8 All Other Sales and Related Workers 6,467 7,447 980 2.9%
9 Lawyers 1,052 1,211 159 2.9%
10 Adjusters, Investigators and Collectors 2,260 2,596 336 2.8%
11 Electrical Equipment Mechanics, Installers and Repairmen 542 621 79 2.8%
12 Motor Vehicle Operators 9,066 10,374 1,308 2.7%
13 Marketing and Sales Worker Supervisors 3,837 4,390 553 2.7%
14 Writers, Artists and Entertainers 2,297 2,625 328 2.7%
15 Life Scientists 395 451 56 2.7%
16 Metal Workers, Precision 951 1,084 133 2.7%
17 Technicians, Except Health, Engineering and Science 2,232 2,540 308 2.6%
18 Woodworkers, Precision 215 244 29 2.6%
19 Information Clerks 4,018 4,546 528 2.5%
20 Health Diagnosing 1,490 1,681 191 2.4%
21 Salespersons, Retail 8,880 10,017 1,137 2.4%
22 Textile, Apparel and Furniture Workers, Precision 432 486 54 2.4%
23 Hand Workers, Including Assembly and Fabrication 4,188 4,708 520 2.4%
24 Cashiers 7,285 8,183 898 2.4%
25 Protective Service 9,036 10,134 1,098 2.3%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Endnote

[1] State and Local government sectors were not defined separately until 1979.